[AdaWorldAPI]

Offline run of P1, as pre-registered in #1788 § A.6. Its question: does the share of 4,096-row groups a mask touches predict Lance 13's masked/unmasked bytes? Only committed data is used: no Lance run, no runtime or production code, no DuckDB.

Verdict: FAIL. No estimator is proposed.

What it does

• Regenerates all 136 masks from the probes' own seeded generators: H14c holo-lance-masked-io-probe, H14d holo-h14d-probe at measured commit 802db7df.
• Every regenerated mask matches the probe's recorded row count.
• Four disable runs, each changing the generator's input set, are caught (37, 11, 8 and 29 mismatched cells).
• Geometry checked from source: one fragment, coordinates written in order, no stable row ids, so slot c is row offset c.

Results (per-cell CSV in .claude/probes/p1-chunk-touched-v1/results.csv)

test	cells	error > 0.10	Spearman
all cells (registered population)	136	8.8 %	0.988
cells with a selection	73	16.4 %	0.930

• Uniform 1 % control: holds. Predicted 1.00; measured 1.00 (H14c) and 0.999 (H14d).
• Clustered 1 % control: misses. Predicted 0.44 against 0.24 and 0.19 measured.
• Why the thresholds still pass: only because 63 of the 136 cells select no row and are trivially exact.
• Direction: on cells with a selection, the predictor over-predicts in 59 of 73.
• Registered follow-up (64 KiB range merge): fails too, at 11.8 % of all cells over 0.10. Both probes wrote to a local temp directory, where lance-io merges at 4 KiB, not the 64 KiB cloud default; the hypothesis was tested as registered.
• 2,048-row shift control: reported, not scored. Its premise assumes chunk-length runs; these runs are 64 rows long.

Details and limits: .claude/board/entries/2026-10-26-dqm-p1-chunk-touched.md.

Not changed

DR64, the 512-byte node, MailboxSoA, BatchWriter, CycleWriter, MemWAL, Quack, mask-risc and ndarray are all untouched. S-INGRESS, the joint coordinate witness, ALLOW and BLOCK remain separate operator decisions.

---

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