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docs: update DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md for PR #53 (~29-49%) - #54

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Jun 28, 2026
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Summary

Updates discovery prediction documentation to reflect PR #53 (safety pH74 consistency + stronger cytotoxicity penalty):

Test plan

  • Documentation only — no code changes
  • 1172 tests still pass (pre-push hook green)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

- Add PR #53 to completed improvements header
- Add detailed PR #53 section: safety pH74 consistency + stronger cytotox penalty
- Update Stage 2 (TI gate) ~41-56% → ~42-57% (stronger SEED-004 demotion)
- Update combined breaking news probability ~28-48% → ~29-49%
- Add item 16 to "What the Pipeline Got Right"
- Update summary table, roadmap gap, and footer probability references
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cschanhniem merged commit d839271 into main Jun 28, 2026
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cschanhniem deleted the docs/update-pr53-discovery-prediction branch June 28, 2026 08:37
cschanhniem added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 28, 2026
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* docs: update ROADMAP, add AUROC reproducibility note, update RISK_REVIEW

ROADMAP.md:
- Mark v0.1-v0.5 as complete (✓) with specifics of what was delivered in each milestone
- Add v0.5.x section documenting the pre-wet-lab scoring enhancements (PRs #31-#54):
  serum stability, selectivity proxy, pilot priority, aggregation, proline penalty,
  helix bonus, amidation/acetylation recommendations, DISCOVERY_PREDICTION model

METHODS.md Section 8:
- Add 'To reproduce: make validate-scoring' note so reviewers can reproduce AUROC 0.8164
  from the repository without external tooling (addresses code review feedback that
  the headline performance number was not reproducible from visible code)

RISK_REVIEW.md Section 2:
- Add selectivity proxy / HIGH_CYTOTOX_RISK as a dedicated filtered risk row; both the
  safety scorer (μH penalty, pH-7.4 charge) and pilot panel (cytotox_penalty) now
  double-mitigate cytotoxicity risk
- Update hydrophobicity row to mention μH > 0.55 signal added in PR #53
- Update charge density row to note charge_density_ph74 for accuracy
- Add proline content as a reported risk row
- Update action-required note to flag HIGH_CYTOTOX_RISK candidates for hemolysis assay

* docs: fix CLI command in METHODS.md reproducibility note (code review PR #56)

validate-scoring is a top-level command, not a bench subcommand.
'cli bench validate-scoring' would raise argparse error.
Corrected to 'cli validate-scoring' to match the actual Makefile target.
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