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@rubenarslan rubenarslan commented Jul 14, 2026 •

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…en<->Witten)

Standalone Python subproject (GPLv3, excluded from the R package build via
.Rbuildignore) that serves realistic arrival-time forecasts for the
Aachen Hbf <-> Witten Hbf commute as a phone PWA.

Instead of scraping and training from scratch, it self-hosts the
Bahn-Vorhersage predictor image (weekly-retrained model returning full
delay distributions per stop event) and adds:

- journey enumeration via transport.rest (vendo world), IRIS/DB InfraGO
  forecasts fed to the model (its training domain), with desync between
  the two sources surfaced instead of hidden
- explicit cancellation branch (model distributions are conditional on
  the train running): missed/cancelled options re-plan onto the next
  option, yielding effective arrival quantiles incl. that risk;
  empirical cancellation rates from piebro/deutsche-bahn-data
- prediction log + travel-day outcome resolver + calibration report
  (quantile coverage, pinball loss, DB-forecast bias per source)
- FastAPI backend + vanilla-JS PWA, docker-compose (predictor/app/resolver)

Payload semantics verified against bahnvorhersage source: 34 classes,
offset 3, pmf over deviation from current prognosis, open +30 tail;
ISO weekday 1-7 as trained (upstream frontend's 0-6 off-by-one not
reproduced). 21 offline tests (fixtures for transport.rest, IRIS XML,
synthetic predictor responses); ruff clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_016RWSd2ioqjj9FG6yzw3JXF
@rubenarslan
rubenarslan deleted the claude/train-punctuality-forecast-9gixwf branch July 16, 2026 17:06
@rubenarslan rubenarslan changed the title Train punctuality forecasts for Aachen ↔ Witten (self-hosted, quantitative) Accidental PR Jul 16, 2026
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