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Make learning start dates explicit #2489

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42 changes: 26 additions & 16 deletions core/bounds.gms
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ loop(t $ (t.val >= 2015 and t.val <= 2025),
vm_cap.lo(t,regi,teVRE(te),"1") $ pm_histCap(t,regi,te) = 0.95 * pm_histCap(t,regi,te);
vm_cap.up(t,regi,teVRE(te),"1") $ pm_histCap(t,regi,te) = 1.05 * pm_histCap(t,regi,te);
*** broader bounds for renewables with lower data quality
loop(te $ (sameas(te, "hydro") or sameas(te, "geohdr")),
loop(te $ (sameas(te, "hydro") or sameas(te, "geohdr") or sameas(te, "elh2")),
vm_cap.lo(t,regi,te,"1") $ pm_histCap(t,regi,te) = 0.7 * pm_histCap(t,regi,te);
vm_cap.up(t,regi,te,"1") $ pm_histCap(t,regi,te) = 1.4 * pm_histCap(t,regi,te);
);
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -119,14 +119,6 @@ vm_deltaCap.lo("2030",regi,te,"1") = sum( project_status,
*' ##### Near-term capacity for electrolysis and hydrogen
*** ------------------------------------------------------------------

*' set lower and upper bounds for 2025 and 2030 based on projects annoucements from IEA Hydryogen project database:
*' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database
*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025 (we do not use later time steps as they may have different GDPs depending on the scenario)
*' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements
*' 2 GW(el) at least globally in 2025, about operational capacity as of 2023
vm_cap.lo("2025",regi,"elh2","1") = 2e-3 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2") * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
*' 20 GW(el) at maximum globally in 2025 (be more generous to not overconstrain regions which scale-up fastest)
vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1") = 20e-3 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2") * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
*' 100 GW(el) at maximum globally in 2030 (upper end of feasibility range in Odenweller et al. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01097-4, Fig. 4)
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"elh2","1") = 100e-3 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2") * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));

Expand All @@ -151,10 +143,6 @@ vm_costTeCapital.fx(t, regi,teNoLearn) = pm_inco0_t(t,regi,teNoLearn);
*' No battery storage in 2010
vm_cap.up("2010",regi,teStor,"1") = 0;

*** NR: cumulated capacity never falls below initial cumulated capacity:
vm_capCum.lo(ttot,regi,teLearn) $ (ttot.val >= cm_startyear) = pm_data(regi,"ccap0",teLearn);
*** exception for tech_stat 4 technologies whose ccap0 refers to 2025 as these technologies don't exist in 2005
vm_capCum.lo(ttot,regi,teLearn) $ (pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",teLearn) = 4 and ttot.val <= 2020) = 0;


*' Advanced technologies shouldn't be built prior to 2015/2020
Expand All @@ -175,9 +163,7 @@ loop(regi,

*' no technologies with tech_stat 4 before 2025
vm_cap.fx(t,regi,te,rlf) $ (t.val <= 2020 and pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",te) = 4) = 0;
*** initialize cumulative capacity of tech_stat 4 technologies at 0
*** (not at ccap0 from generisdata_tech.prn which gives the cucmulative capacity
*** at the initial investment cost of the first year in which the technology can be built)
*** initialize cumulative capacity of tech_stat 4 technologies at 0
vm_capCum.fx(t0,regi,teLearn) $ (pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",teLearn) = 4) = 0;
*** tech_stat 4 technologies don't learn before 2025, so capital cost should be fixed
vm_costTeCapital.fx(t,regi,teLearn) $ (t.val <= 2020 and pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",teLearn) = 4) = fm_dataglob("inco0",teLearn);
Expand All @@ -186,6 +172,30 @@ vm_costTeCapital.fx(t,regi,teLearn) $ (t.val <= 2020 and pm_data(regi,"tech_stat
vm_deltaCap.fx(t,regi,te,rlf) $ (t.val <= 2025 and pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",te) = 5) = 0;



*** Assume no retirements before 2005 for more established learning techs
vm_capCum.fx("2005", regi, "windon") = pm_histCap("2005", regi, "windon");
vm_capCum.fx("2005", regi, "windoff") = pm_histCap("2005", regi, "windoff");
vm_capCum.fx("2005", regi, "spv") = pm_histCap("2005", regi, "spv");
vm_capCum.fx("2005", regi, "csp") = pm_histCap("2005", regi, "csp");
vm_capCum.fx("2005", regi, "elh2") = pm_histCap("2005", regi, "elh2");

*** these are guesses by Robert Pietzcker
vm_capCum.fx("2005",regi,"storwindon") = 0.00005 / card(regi);
vm_capCum.fx("2005",regi,"storwindoff") = 0.00005 / card(regi);
vm_capCum.fx("2005",regi,"storspv") = 0.00005 / card(regi);
vm_capCum.fx("2005",regi,"storcsp") = 0.00005 / card(regi);

*** Assume that 3 MtCO2/yr DAC capacity installed gobally by 2025 (https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture)
vm_capCum.fx("2025",regi,"dac") = 3 * sm_MtCO2_2_GtC / card(regi);

$ifthen.c_BCLearning not "%c_BCLearning%" == 0
*** these are guesses by Tabea Dorndorf
vm_capCum.fx("2015",regi,"biopyronly") = 0.001 / card(regi);
vm_capCum.fx("2015",regi,"biopyrhe") = 0.001 / card(regi);
vm_capCum.fx("2015",regi,"biopyrchp") = 0.001 / card(regi);
$endif.c_BCLearning

*** ------------------------------------------------------------------
*' ##### Capacity for nuclear energy
*** TODO: data update ------------------------------------------------
Expand Down
30 changes: 10 additions & 20 deletions core/datainput.gms
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -328,12 +328,10 @@ pm_data(all_regi,char,te) = fm_dataglob(char,te);
$ifthen.REG_techcosts not "%cm_techcosts%" == "GLO" !! cm_techcosts is REG or REG2040
*** Initial investment costs differentiated by region:
pm_data(regi,"inco0",teRegTechCosts(te)) = p_inco0("2015",regi,te);
pm_data(regi,"inco0","spv") = p_inco0("2020",regi,"spv");
pm_data(regi,"inco0","spv") = p_inco0("2020",regi,"spv");

*** Initial capacity differentiated by region:
Execute_Loadpoint 'input' p_capCum = vm_capCum.l; !! read vm_capCum(t0,regi,teLearn) from input.gdx to have 2005 investment costs
p_capCum("2015",regi,te) $ (p_capCum("2015",regi,te) = 0) = fm_dataglob("ccap0",te) / card(regi); !! if technology not in gdx, default to global value
p_capCum("2020",regi,"spv") $ (p_capCum("2020",regi,"spv") = 0) = 0.6 / card(regi2); !! assume 600GW of solar PV in 2020 globally
Execute_Loadpoint 'input' p_capCum = vm_capCum.l; !! read vm_capCum(t0,regi,teLearn) from input.gdx
$endif.REG_techcosts


Expand Down Expand Up @@ -422,25 +420,21 @@ loop(teLearn(te),
*** b' = \frac{I_0}{I_0 - F} b = \frac{I_0}{I_0 - F} \log_2(1-\lambda)
fm_dataglob("learnExp_wFC",te) = fm_dataglob("inco0",te) / fm_dataglob("incolearn",te) * log(1 - fm_dataglob("learn",te)) / log(2);
*** a' = \frac{I_0 - F}{C_0^{b'}}
fm_dataglob("learnMult_wFC",te) = fm_dataglob("incolearn",te) / (fm_dataglob("ccap0",te) ** fm_dataglob("learnExp_wFC", te));

fm_dataglob("learnMult_wFC",te) = fm_dataglob("incolearn",te) / (sum((ttot, regi2)$(ttot.val = fm_dataglob("inco0year",te)), p_capCum(ttot,regi2,te)) ** fm_dataglob("learnExp_wFC", te));
*** regional parameters
pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te) = pm_data(regi,"inco0",te) / pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) * log(1 - pm_data(regi,"learn",te)) / log(2);

$ifthen %cm_techcosts% == "GLO"
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC",te) = pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) / sum(regi2,pm_data(regi2,"ccap0",te)) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te);

$else
!! cm_techcosts is REG or REG2040
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC",te) = pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2015",regi2,te)) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te);
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC","spv") = pm_data(regi,"incolearn","spv") / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2020",regi2,"spv")) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC","spv");
$endif

*** regional uses different years than global data
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC",te) = pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) / (sum((ttot, regi2)$(ttot.val = fm_dataglob("inco0year",te)), p_capCum(ttot,regi2,te)) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te));
*FS* initialize learning curve for most advanced technologies as defined by tech_stat = 4 in generisdata_tech.prn (with very small real-world capacities in 2020)
*** equally for all regions based on global cumulative capacity of ccap0 and incolearn (difference between initial investment cost and floor cost)
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC",te) $ (pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",te) = 4)
= pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) / fm_dataglob("ccap0",te) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te);
= pm_data(regi,"incolearn",te) / (sum((ttot, regi2)$(ttot.val = fm_dataglob("inco0year",te)), p_capCum(ttot,regi2,te)) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC",te));
);
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC","spv") = pm_data(regi,"incolearn","spv") / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2020",regi2,"spv")) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC","spv");
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC","windon") = pm_data(regi,"incolearn","windon") / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2015",regi2,"windon")) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC","windon");
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC","windoff") = pm_data(regi,"incolearn","windoff") / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2015",regi2,"windoff")) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC","windoff");
pm_data(regi,"learnMult_wFC","csp") = pm_data(regi,"incolearn","csp") / sum(regi2,p_capCum("2015",regi2,"csp")) ** pm_data(regi,"learnExp_wFC","csp");
display pm_data;


Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1372,10 +1366,6 @@ p_emi_quan_conv_ar4("n2onitac") = sm_tgn_2_pgc * (298/s_gwpN2O);
p_emi_quan_conv_ar4("n2owaste") = sm_tgn_2_pgc * (298/s_gwpN2O);


*RP* Distribute ccap0 for all regions
pm_data(regi,"ccap0",te) = 1/card(regi)*fm_dataglob("ccap0",te);


*** -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
*** ------------ emission budgets and their time periods ------------------------
*** -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Expand Down
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions core/declarations.gms
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -382,7 +382,7 @@ vm_cap(tall,all_regi,all_te,rlf) "net total capacities [TW]
v_capDistr(tall,all_regi,all_te,rlf) "net capacities, distributed to the different grades for renewables [TW]"
vm_capTotal(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,all_enty) "total capacity of pe2se conversion technologies without technology differentation [TW]"
vm_deltaCap(tall,all_regi,all_te,rlf) "capacity additions [TW/yr] for energy conversion technologies, [GtC/yr^2] for CCS chain in ccs2te (pipelines/injection)"
vm_capCum(tall,all_regi,all_te) "cumulated capactiy of learning technologies [TW]"
vm_capCum(tall,all_regi,all_te) "cumulated capacity of learning technologies [TW]"
vm_capEarlyReti(tall,all_regi,all_te) "fraction of early retired capacity from total standing capacity, can only be increased for technologies for which early retirement is switched on [share]"

*** technoeconomic parameters
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -466,7 +466,6 @@ q_smoothphaseoutCapEarlyReti(ttot,all_regi,all_te) "constraint to limit phase-
q_capH2BI(ttot,all_regi) "calculate hydrogen transmission and distribution capacities for buildings and industry, as total of stationary sector, needed to avoid switching behavior of H2 between both sectors"

*** technology learning equations
q_capCumNet(t0,all_regi,all_te) "set initial cumulated capacity of learning technologies (vm_capCum) in start year"
qm_deltaCapCumNet(ttot,all_regi,all_te) "calculate cumulated capacities of learning technologies (vm_capCum)"
q_costTeCapital(tall,all_regi,all_te) "calculate investment cost for learning technologies (learning curve)"

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -657,6 +656,7 @@ sm_TWa_2_TWh "convert Tera Watt annum to Tera Wh" /8.7
sm_TWa_2_MWh "convert Tera Watt annum to Mega Wh" /8.76e+9/,
sm_TWa_2_kWh "convert Tera Watt annum to kilo Wh" /8.76e+12/,
sm_h2kg_2_h2kWh "convert kg of hydrogen to kWh energy value" /32.5/,
s_GW_2_TW "convert GW to TW" /0.001/,
sm_tBC_2_TWa "t biochar to TWa biochar (28700 [MJ/tBC]*10^-12[EJ/MJ]/31.536[EJ/TWa])" /9.101e-10/,

*** emissions units
Expand Down
12 changes: 1 addition & 11 deletions core/equations.gms
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -371,15 +371,6 @@ qm_deltaCapCumNet(ttot,regi,teLearn)$(ord(ttot) lt card(ttot) AND pm_ttot_val(tt
+
vm_capCum(ttot,regi,teLearn);

***---------------------------------------------------------------------------
*' Initial values for cumulated capacities (learning technologies only):
*' (except for tech_stat 4 technologies that have no standing capacities in 2005 and ccap0 refers to another year)
***---------------------------------------------------------------------------
q_capCumNet(t0,regi,teLearn)$(pm_data(regi,"tech_stat",teLearn) < 4)..
vm_capCum(t0,regi,teLearn)
=e=
pm_data(regi,"ccap0",teLearn);

***---------------------------------------------------------------------------
*' Additional equation for fuel shadow price calulation:
***---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -447,8 +438,7 @@ q_limitGeopot(t,regi,peReComp(enty),rlf)..
*' $$ b' = \frac{I_0}{I_0-F}b $$

*' In datainput.gms, `fm_dataglob` external data provides the observed learning rate `learn` ($\lambda$),
*' the initial investment costs `inco0` ($I_0$), the floorcost ($F$) and
*' the cumulative capacity in 2015 `ccap0` ($C_0$).
*' the initial investment costs `inco0` ($I_0$) and the floorcost ($F$).
*' The other learning parameters are computed using the equations described above:
*' `learnExp_wFC` ($b'$), `learnMult_wFC` ($a'$).

Expand Down
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