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mustafa-droid18/README.md

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Mustafa Poonawala

MS in Data Science @ NYU (GPA 3.9/4.0) · Published Researcher — 3 peer-reviewed papers

Machine learning for credit risk, reinforcement learning, and LLM systems

LinkedIn Email Location

I build ML systems with measurable results, calibrated probabilities, backtested pipelines, benchmarked agents.

Featured Projects

XGBoost default-probability model on 1M+ firm-year records with isotonic calibration — decision-usable, auditable outputs for corporate default prediction.

  • Walk-forward AUC 0.837 on time-validated data, using finance-grounded features (Altman Z, leverage, liquidity)
  • Packaged as a CLI scoring harness with persisted artifacts (model, calibrator, metadata) for reproducible inference

Can an LLM replace a human reward engineer? An automated Claude loop that designs and revises PPO reward functions on Super Mario Bros.

  • Matched 74.5% of an expert's hand-tuned 8-iteration result in just 5 fully automated rounds
  • Revises rewards using training diagnostics (entropy, episode length, explained variance) as feedback
  • Caught reward-hacking exploits and two evaluation bugs via methodology audits; rebuilt the comparison on a leak-free criterion

Gender bias analysis across 90k+ instructor reviews with rigorous statistics.

  • Surfaced a statistically significant pro-male rating bias (Mann-Whitney U on Bayesian-adjusted ratings, bootstrap CIs) — and showed it is practically negligible (Cliff's Δ ≈ 0.04)
  • Found 18 of 20 student tags significantly gendered; modeled ratings (test R² = 0.79) and “pepper” status (AUROC = 0.94)

BiLSTM + XGBoost weighted ensemble forecasting hourly PM2.5 from a 48-hour lookback.

  • R² = 0.89 on 30k+ samples, outperforming individual-model baselines under strict temporal validation
  • Reusable preprocessing pipeline with PPCA imputation and robust scaling

Solving-the-0-1-Knapsack-Problem-Using-the-LAB-Algorithm — 📄 Springer Handbook of Formal Optimization, 2024

LAB (Leader–Advocate–Believer) metaheuristic with constraint-repair and stagnation-triggered perturbation.

  • Reached known optima on 19/20 single-knapsack and 20/30 multidimensional WEISH benchmarks (remaining gaps < 0.7%)
  • Shipped as a reproducible Python package with automated tests and CLI benchmarking

Sign language & Braille translation app for accessibility — led the team shipping it end to end.

  • Real-time hand-sign recognition (MediaPipe + TensorFlow) integrated with speech recognition and a Streamlit UI

Publications

  1. Narkhede, G.G., Poonawala, M., et al. Air Pollution Prediction with Advanced Preprocessing and Deep Ensemble Learning. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2025.
  2. Poonawala, M., Kulkarni, A. Solving the 0-1 Knapsack Problem Using LAB Algorithm. Handbook of Formal Optimization, Springer, 2024.
  3. Poonawala, M., et al. LoRa-Based Farm Monitoring System. ICT Analysis and Applications, Springer, 2023.

Skills

Core Stack

XGBoost Transformers LangGraph Claude OpenAI pandas NumPy Streamlit Spark Tableau Power BI

Statistics & Modeling: Hypothesis testing · Bayesian inference · bootstrap resampling · walk-forward validation · probability calibration · time series

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  1. Credit-Risk-Corporate-PD Credit-Risk-Corporate-PD Public

    Two-stage XGBoost + isotonic calibration pipeline for 12-month corporate default prediction, validated via walk-forward backtesting on 1M Italian firm-years.

    Jupyter Notebook

  2. LLM-Reward-Shaping LLM-Reward-Shaping Public

    Automated LLM reward-design loop for PPO on Super Mario Bros, comparing baseline, human-shaped, and Claude-generated reward functions across iterative training rounds.

    Python

  3. Air-Pollution-Prediction-with-Advanced-Preprocessing-and-Deep-Ensemble-Learning Air-Pollution-Prediction-with-Advanced-Preprocessing-and-Deep-Ensemble-Learning Public

    This repository contains all the files required for predicting the AQI of a region

    Jupyter Notebook 1

  4. Solving-the-0-1-Knapsack-Problem-Using-the-LAB-Algorithm Solving-the-0-1-Knapsack-Problem-Using-the-LAB-Algorithm Public

    This repository implements the LAB (Leader Advocate Believer) Algorithm to solve the 0-1 Knapsack Problem, a classic optimization problem. The LAB Algorithm is inspired by human social interactions…

    Jupyter Notebook

  5. Scribee Scribee Public

    Accessibility app that converts speech and text to Braille and recognizes sign language in real time — MediaPipe, TensorFlow, OpenCV, Streamlit

    Python 1

  6. RateMyProfessor-Bias-Analysis RateMyProfessor-Bias-Analysis Public

    Analyzing gender and perception bias in RateMyProfessor reviews using statistical and machine learning tools.

    Python