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Keep variance for identical-stat treatment observations (#5304) - #5304

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saitcakmak:export-D126118253

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@saitcakmak saitcakmak commented Oct 19, 2026 •

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Summary:

What Changed

Use status-quo arm identity for the forward shortcut in nonconstant-control Relativize, matching the existing vectorized path. Equal treatment/control means and SEMs do not establish that they are the same estimate. With the default zero covariance, a distinct treatment's delta-method relative variance is 2 * SEM**2 / mean**2, not zero.

This narrowly scoped follow-up to D126108875 addresses review comment 3. It changes one forward guard, adds actual observation/vectorized parity tests for positive/negative controls and zero/positive SEMs, and retains the treatment round trip. Actual status quo variance stays zero. Constant-control behavior, vectorized formulas, and inverse formulas/restoration remain unchanged.


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Differential Revision: D126118253

@meta-cla meta-cla Bot added the CLA Signed Do not delete this pull request or issue due to inactivity. label Oct 19, 2026
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meta-codesync Bot commented Oct 19, 2026

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@saitcakmak has exported this pull request. If you are a Meta employee, you can view the originating Diff in D126118253.

Summary:

## What Changed
Use status-quo arm identity for the forward shortcut in nonconstant-control `Relativize`, matching the existing vectorized path. Equal treatment/control means and SEMs do not establish that they are the same estimate. With the default zero covariance, a distinct treatment's delta-method relative variance is `2 * SEM**2 / mean**2`, not zero.

This narrowly scoped follow-up to D126108875 addresses review comment 3. It changes one forward guard, adds actual observation/vectorized parity tests for positive/negative controls and zero/positive SEMs, and retains the treatment round trip. Actual status quo variance stays zero. Constant-control behavior, vectorized formulas, and inverse formulas/restoration remain unchanged.

___

landed-with-radar-review

Differential Revision: D126118253
@meta-codesync meta-codesync Bot changed the title Keep variance for identical-stat treatment observations Keep variance for identical-stat treatment observations (#5304) Oct 19, 2026
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Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 96.60%. Comparing base (34f5ff6) to head (3752e7f).

Additional details and impacted files
@@           Coverage Diff           @@
##             main    #5304   +/-   ##
=======================================
  Coverage   96.59%   96.60%           
=======================================
  Files         621      621           
  Lines       71054    71075   +21     
=======================================
+ Hits        68638    68659   +21     
  Misses       2416     2416           

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@meta-codesync meta-codesync Bot closed this in be103fa Oct 19, 2026
@meta-codesync meta-codesync Bot added the Merged label Oct 19, 2026
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meta-codesync Bot commented Oct 19, 2026

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This pull request has been merged in be103fa.

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