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arda-basarici/README.md

Arda Başarıcı

Software engineer with a mathematics background, moving into AI / ML engineering. I spent the past several years shipping production software — 25+ released games, real users, real deadlines — and I bring that discipline to building AI systems: architecture that stays maintainable, tests that make meaningful claims, and results that can be regenerated from a seed.

Rather than treating projects as demonstrations of tools, I treat them as engineering investigations: a concrete question, strong baselines, controlled experiments, and a technical report that explains not only what worked, but why — including the hypotheses that failed.

How I work

  • Measurement before optimization. A number with no baseline and no error bar isn't a result yet.
  • Test explanations, not just models. A conclusion is earned by the controlled experiment that could have falsified it.
  • Negative results are findings. My strongest published result is a demonstration of why learning fails on a problem — reported as the finding it is.
  • Reproducible by construction. Experiments carry their config, seed, and code version — enough context to rerun and independently verify a finding.
  • Complexity must earn its place. The right tool for the question — no framework, layer, or model added unless it demonstrably buys something.

None of this is specific to one model family. Evaluation discipline is the same job whether the system under test is a Q-table, a gradient-boosted tree, or an LLM pipeline — which is exactly where I'm taking it (see below).

The work so far — the evidence

My public work to date spans simulation, data engineering, and machine learning. One line each; the write-ups carry the full story:

  • blackjack-rl — can RL rediscover provably-optimal decisions? The capstone inverts: the learned bettor never finds Kelly, and the project proves why — the edge is real but sits below the noise it must be learned from. Structure beats end-to-end learning on a sub-noise signal.
  • steam-reviews — what does "85% positive" measure? A resumable data pipeline (298k reviews, 30 languages, contract- validated) and four findings forced to reproduce inside individual games — plus a chapter on the claims the data refused to support.
  • pathfinding-ml — a learned A* heuristic beats Manhattan (~17% fewer nodes, ~0.2% optimality gap), found on the far side of a Simpson's reversal. The real lesson: the training distribution governs the outcome, not the model.
  • blackjack-sim — the from-scratch, self-validating Monte Carlo engine the RL work audits against (~90M hands, validated on the published house edge).

Every project ships with a technical report and full design/architecture documentation.

📄 Write-ups, reports & code: ardabasarici.dev

Current focus

AI engineering — building AI systems end to end: design, orchestration, and above all measuring what they actually do. Built publicly, like everything above.

Pinned Loading

  1. arda-basarici.github.io arda-basarici.github.io Public

    Portfolio site - projects, reports, and writings

    Astro

  2. blackjack-rl blackjack-rl Public

    Can RL rediscover decisions that can be proven optimal? A three-part audit: lookup table, DQN, and a learned bettor that never finds Kelly - with the why proven, not observed

    Python

  3. blackjack-sim blackjack-sim Public

    From-scratch Monte Carlo blackjack engine + a statistical study of strategy, betting, and counting over ~90M hands - self-validating against the published house edge

    Python

  4. pathfinding-ml pathfinding-ml Public

    Can a model learn a better A* heuristic - and how do you know it helped? ~17% fewer nodes at a ~0.2% optimality gap, and the real finding: the training distribution governs the result, not the model

    Python

  5. steam-reviews steam-reviews Public

    What does a Steam rating actually measure? 298k reviews, 50 games, 30 languages - four findings validated within individual games, and a chapter on what the data refuses to claim

    Python