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Don't stop on look-alike pages; catch answers that admit they missed - #48

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claude/variance
Sep 28, 2026
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@ahamsel ahamsel commented Sep 28, 2026

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Why

Running every scenario 3 times in the user's Edge (to measure run-to-run variance) turned up a regression. mail_relocation failed all 3 runs in about 4s.

The per-decision trace records added in #45 show why:

  1. Jev opened the look-alike "Relocation packages" newsletter (0.42, versus 0.35 for searching the mail).
  2. On that page it chose "done" while only 45% sure the task was complete.
  3. The answer was honest: "this is a newsletter… the email you mean doesn't appear on this page". But the answer check passed it anyway.

What changed

  • Unsure "done": when Jev picks "done" but its "task complete" score (goal_done) is under 0.6, the LLM advisor takes a second look. It either confirms done or picks the next step. With no second looks left, Jev finishes as before, and the answer check still judges the result.
  • Answer check, third question (admits_missing): "Does the answer itself say the main thing wasn't found or is elsewhere?" The score is now min(claims_supported, answers_task, 1 − admits_missing).

Results

  • Answer-check eval (now 10 cases × 3 runs; two new cases: that real miss, and a good answer with a minor caveat):
    • Before: 26/30 judged correctly. After: 30/30.
    • admits_missing stays ≤ 0.06 on good answers and hits 0.92 on the miss.
  • Realistic suite × 2 in Edge: 22/22, median 10.4s (mail_relocation 10.5s and 11.0s).
  • Everyday suite × 3 in Edge (before this change): 37/39, median 7.2s.
  • npm test: 77/77. npm run extension:smoke: 11/11. npm run build passes.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…issed

Found by running each scenario 3 times: mail_relocation failed every run in
~4s. The trace's new decision records showed why: Jev opened the "Relocation
packages" newsletter (0.42 vs searching 0.35), chose "done" while only 45%
sure the task was complete, and the answer ("this is a newsletter... the email
you mean doesn't appear on this page") passed the check.

- Jev choosing "done" with goal_done < 0.6 gets the LLM advisor's second look
  (done, or the next step); with no consults left it finishes as before.
- The answer check asks a third question, admits_missing: does the answer say
  the main thing wasn't found or is elsewhere? The score is min(claims,
  answers, 1 - admits_missing).
- Eval: +2 cases (that real miss; a good answer with a minor caveat). Before
  26/30, after 30/30; admits_missing <= 0.06 on good answers, 0.92 on the miss.

Realistic suite x2 in Edge: 22/22, median 10.4s (mail_relocation 10.5s, 11.0s).
Everyday suite x3 in Edge before this: 37/39, median 7.2s.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@ahamsel
ahamsel merged commit 958d8c5 into main Sep 28, 2026
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ahamsel deleted the claude/variance branch September 29, 2026 00:00
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