Jamie Song - Firearm violence across space and time in Philadelphia (draft 1)

data/city_year.json

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+[
+  {
+    "year": 2015,
+    "total": 1271,
+    "fatal": 233,
+    "nonfatal": 1038,
+    "period": "baseline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2016,
+    "total": 1319,
+    "fatal": 262,
+    "nonfatal": 1057,
+    "period": "baseline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2017,
+    "total": 1250,
+    "fatal": 259,
+    "nonfatal": 991,
+    "period": "baseline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2018,
+    "total": 1438,
+    "fatal": 302,
+    "nonfatal": 1136,
+    "period": "baseline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2019,
+    "total": 1464,
+    "fatal": 311,
+    "nonfatal": 1153,
+    "period": "baseline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2020,
+    "total": 2245,
+    "fatal": 449,
+    "nonfatal": 1796,
+    "period": "peak",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2021,
+    "total": 2332,
+    "fatal": 507,
+    "nonfatal": 1825,
+    "period": "peak",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2022,
+    "total": 2255,
+    "fatal": 476,
+    "nonfatal": 1779,
+    "period": "peak",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2023,
+    "total": 1660,
+    "fatal": 376,
+    "nonfatal": 1284,
+    "period": "recent_decline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2024,
+    "total": 1082,
+    "fatal": 228,
+    "nonfatal": 854,
+    "period": "recent_decline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  },
+  {
+    "year": 2025,
+    "total": 940,
+    "fatal": 208,
+    "nonfatal": 732,
+    "period": "recent_decline",
+    "completeness_flag": "complete by month/date check"
+  }
+]

data/metadata.json

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+{
+  "analysis_title": "The changing geography of Philadelphia shooting violence: Project 1",
+  "data_extraction_date": "2026-05-21",
+  "maximum_event_date": "2025-12-31",
+  "outcome_definition": "Shooting-victim events; fatal and nonfatal outcomes retained separately",
+  "officer_involved_exclusion": "Records coded Y for officer_involved are excluded; unknown status is excluded and reported",
+  "analytic_years": {
+    "start": 2015,
+    "end": 2025
+  },
+  "period_definitions": {
+    "baseline": "2015-2019",
+    "peak": "2020-2022",
+    "recent_decline": "2023-2025"
+  },
+  "geographic_vintage": "2020 Census tracts; 2020 Census block groups used only for sensitivity",
+  "acs_vintage_and_variable": "2020-2024 ACS 5-year B01003_001 total population estimate and margin of error",
+  "rate_definition": "period_count / (fixed total population * years in period) * 10000; area-level place-based burden, not resident incidence",
+  "primary_method": "Fixed 2015-2019 upper-quartile tract annualized burden benchmark",
+  "rate_eligibility": {
+    "rule": "Exclude Census special-use tract codes 9800-9899 from all rates and classifications, including constituent block groups; retain geometry and raw counts",
+    "source": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/partnerships/psap/G-650.pdf",
+    "excluded_tract_geoids": ["42101980001", "42101980002", "42101980003", "42101980100", "42101980200", "42101980300", "42101980400", "42101980500", "42101980600", "42101980701", "42101980702", "42101980800", "42101980901", "42101980902", "42101980903", "42101980904", "42101980905", "42101980906", "42101989100", "42101989200", "42101989300"],
+    "display": "Unavailable; rate_exclusion_reason distinguishes special-use exclusions from missing/zero population",
+    "revision": "Land-use eligibility revision after map review; all periods and the baseline benchmark recalculated"
+  },
+  "baseline_percentile": 0.75,
+  "benchmark_rate_10k": 13.5227897235498,
+  "quantile_type": 7,
+  "threshold_inclusion": "greater than or equal to unrounded cutoff; zero-event positive-population tracts included",
+  "threshold_comparison_periods": "same cutoff for 2020-2022 and 2023-2025; not recalculated within each period",
+  "supplementary_gistar_implementation": "spdep 1.4.2 localG_perm; conditional greater alternative; focal unit fixed; one-sided high-tail probability derived from the reported folded permutation probability and standardized-deviate sign",
+  "supplementary_spatial_weights": "first-order queen contiguity, binary, focal geography explicitly included",
+  "supplementary_permutation_count": 9999,
+  "supplementary_hotspot_q_threshold": 0.1,
+  "supplementary_threshold_revision": "Exploratory post-map-review relaxation from BH q < 0.05 to q < 0.10; original threshold retained in comparison table",
+  "supplementary_random_seed": 20250904,
+  "supplementary_fdr_method_and_threshold": "Benjamini-Hochberg within period; q < 0.10 plus positive Gi* standardized deviate",
+  "transition_definitions": {
+    "persistent": "Persistently elevated: at or above the fixed benchmark in both periods",
+    "previously": "Previously elevated: at or above the benchmark only in 2020-2022",
+    "newly": "Newly elevated: at or above the benchmark only in 2023-2025",
+    "below": "Consistently below: below the benchmark in both periods",
+    "unavailable": "classification unavailable for special-use tracts or denominator/geometry problems"
+  },
+  "planned_social_measures": ["ACS economic, housing, education, age, and racial/ethnic composition", "CDC/ATSDR SVI overall and theme-specific measures, with explicit vintage and ranking reference"],
+  "known_limitations": ["75th percentile is a descriptive baseline reference, not a clinical or significance threshold", "classification ignores uncertainty around rates and ACS population; low-count and denominator flags retained", "descriptive spatial epidemiology; no causal or predictive interpretation", "event location may differ from victim residence", "a fixed ACS denominator does not capture all population change during 2015-2025", "local statistics depend on geography, spatial weights, sparse counts, and multiple-testing decisions", "below benchmark is not evidence that shooting violence is absent", "source completeness checks cannot detect every reporting delay or omission"],
+  "source_filenames": ["data/raw/shootings_2272_2026-05-21.gpkg", "tract_2020_acs2024_population.gpkg", "block_group_2020_acs2024_population.gpkg"],
+  "generation_timestamp": "2026-09-16 20:19:51 UTC"
+}