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Add PUF tax detail support and batched fiscal reform scoring#150

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MaxGhenis merged 4 commits into
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codex/puf-tax-detail-support-impute-20260619
Jun 19, 2026
Merged

Add PUF tax detail support and batched fiscal reform scoring#150
MaxGhenis merged 4 commits into
mainfrom
codex/puf-tax-detail-support-impute-20260619

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Summary

  • add PUF tax-detail support imputation for the US support channel, including PUF-only writeback tests
  • add a general --maximum-microsim-batch-size release-builder option and batch tax-expenditure reform microsim materialization by household slice
  • align the deductible-mortgage-interest JCT tax-expenditure row to neutralize the tax-unit interest_deduction input that actually flows into itemized deductions in this dataset

Local validation

  • uv run ruff check tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/puf_support.py packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/__init__.py packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_puf_support.py
  • uv run python -m json.tool packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/fiscal_target_references.json >/dev/null
  • uv run --package populace-build --extra us pytest packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_puf_support.py (58 passed)
  • uv run --package populace-build --extra us pytest packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py (50 passed)

Local diagnostic build

Built the PUF-support base H5 at out/puf-support-local-20260619/base/base_populace_us_2024_puf_support.h5 and ran a full target-surface 128-epoch calibration with --maximum-microsim-batch-size 25000.

Result diagnostics: out/puf-support-local-20260619/calibrated-128-batched-r2/releases/populace-us-2024-puf-support-local-128-batched-r2-20260619/calibration_diagnostics.json.

Metrics:

  • records: 150,224 households
  • targets: 4,356
  • initial loss: 0.08174028247594833
  • final loss: 0.041313028782942386
  • within 10%: 0.8686868686868687

This is not release-valid yet. Remaining hard gate failures:

  • Social Security benefits: -12.1156% relative error
  • Premium Tax Credit amount: +12.0435% relative error

The mortgage-interest JCT target is no longer zero-support: it materializes at $33.61B final against a $24.8B target after the interest_deduction mapping change.

Review

Read-only cycle review reported no actionable findings. Residual risk: this branch overlaps active fiscal-refresh PRs (#121, #128, #130), so merge order may require follow-up reconciliation.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 63b8187 into main Jun 19, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the codex/puf-tax-detail-support-impute-20260619 branch June 19, 2026 21:13
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