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fix: update DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md scaffold count 6→7 after PR #72 - #82

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cschanhniem merged 1 commit into
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fix/discovery-prediction-scaffold-count
Jun 28, 2026
Merged

cschanhniem merged 1 commit into
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fix/discovery-prediction-scaffold-count

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Summary

After PR #72 (face_segregation_bonus), SEED-001 (magainin-1) was reinstated as the 7th scaffold family in the synthesis pool. The External Calibration section in DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md still said "6 effective scaffolds" — that number predates PR #72.

Changes

No code changes — documentation only.

Test plan

  • All 1258 tests pass (make test)
  • Math verified: (0.984)^7 = 0.893 → P ≈ 10.7%, (0.976)^7 = 0.840 → P ≈ 16%, (0.969)^7 = 0.803 → P ≈ 20%

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The External Calibration section said "6 effective scaffolds" after PR #61,
but PR #72 (face_segregation_bonus) reinstated SEED-001 (magainin-1) into the
synthesis pool as the 7th scaffold family. Update the calibrated probability
calculation accordingly:

  P(≥1 from 7 at 1.6%) ≈ 11%, at 2.4% ≈ 16%, at 3.1% ≈ 20%
  Calibrated range: 10–20% (was 10–18% for 6 scaffolds)

Also:
- Update executive summary to show post-PR #72 numbers (AUROC 0.8420, 7 families)
- Add cross-reference to docs/WET_LAB_PROBABILITY.md for per-family breakdown
- Clarify "publishable novel result" vs "breaking news" distinction in the table
- Fix "calibrated estimate n=6" table column header → n=7
@cschanhniem
cschanhniem merged commit fd59f58 into main Jun 28, 2026
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@cschanhniem
cschanhniem deleted the fix/discovery-prediction-scaffold-count branch June 28, 2026 16:03
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