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docs: update discovery prediction for corrected synthesis pool (6 confirmed scaffold families) - #62
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- Add PR #60-#61 to improvements header - Update dual-scorer consensus section: disagreement threshold now 0.40, explain Boman W scale limitation for SEED-008 Trp-rich sequences - Update safety section: mean safety now 0.991 (vs 0.952 before); document why SEED-010 and SEED-004 are correctly excluded - Rewrite Highest-Probability Bets table: shows actual 6 confirmed scaffold families (SEED-003/005/006/007/008/009), removes SEED-001/002/004 - Update budget-constrained recommendation to use confirmed scaffolds - Update External Calibration: correct n=6 actual scaffolds (was n≈10), recalculate P(≥1) = 9-17% → rounded to 10-18%; document quality improvement partially offsets fewer scaffold count - Update honest summary: 10-18% calibrated (was 15-30%) - Add final synthesis pool status: 100 candidates confirmed
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Summary
Why this matters
The original DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md showed estimated probabilities based on "10 effective scaffolds" but the actual synthesis pool after rigorous filtering has 6 confirmed scaffold families. This is an honest update that prevents overoptimism before wet-lab ordering.
The 4 excluded seeds are correctly excluded:
Test plan
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