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docs: update DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md for PR #51 (AUROC 0.8164, ~28-48%) - #52

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cschanhniem merged 1 commit into
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docs/update-pr51-discovery-prediction
Jun 28, 2026
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cschanhniem merged 1 commit into
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docs/update-pr51-discovery-prediction

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Summary

Updates discovery prediction documentation to reflect PR #51 (proline synthesis penalty + helix bonus enhancement):

Test plan

  • No code changes — documentation only
  • All AUROC figures consistent (0.8164 throughout)
  • Breaking news probability chain complete: ~5-12% → ... → ~28-48%
  • 1168 tests still pass (pre-push hook green)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

- Add PR #51 to completed improvements header
- Add detailed PR #51 section: proline synthesis penalty (DKP risk)
  and helix bonus weight 0.01→0.03 with literature citations
- Update AUROC from 0.811/0.8138 → 0.8164 throughout
- MIC gate updated ~60-70% → ~61-71% to reflect AUROC improvement
- Breaking news probability updated ~27-47% → ~28-48%
- Add item 15 to "What the Pipeline Got Right"
- Update summary table, confidence calibration, roadmap gap references
- Scoring model limitation: ~-5 pp → ~-4 pp (AUROC improved)
@cschanhniem
cschanhniem merged commit 9db4d7e into main Jun 28, 2026
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@cschanhniem
cschanhniem deleted the docs/update-pr51-discovery-prediction branch June 28, 2026 08:16
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