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28 changes: 15 additions & 13 deletions docs/DISCOVERY_PREDICTION.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -15,11 +15,12 @@ each stage, identifies the key risk factors in the current nominee set, and list
improvements already implemented or recommended.

**Bottom line:** The pilot panel has a ~55–65% probability of yielding at least one candidate
with MIC ≤ 32 μg/mL, and **~10–25%** probability of generating "breaking news" publication
material with the updated panel (up from 5–12% before computational improvements in PRs #31–#33).
The family diversity cap (max_per_seed=4) now ensures 4 candidates per seed family, including
4 SEED-004 variants with serum_stability 0.85 (excellent predicted stability). The dominant
remaining computational gap is scaffold novelty (all nominees remain near-seed variants).
with MIC ≤ 32 μg/mL, and **~12–28%** probability of generating "breaking news" publication
material with the updated panel (up from 5–12% before computational improvements in PRs #31–#36).
The family diversity cap (max_per_seed=4) ensures 4 candidates per seed family including 4 SEED-004
variants (serum_stability 0.85, C-terminal amidation recommended). New features (net charge pH 7.4,
Chou-Fasman helix propensity, C-amidation flag) improve pipeline accuracy and synthesis guidance.
The dominant remaining computational gap is scaffold novelty (all nominees remain near-seed variants).

---

Expand All @@ -37,7 +38,7 @@ To be publishable as a significant advance in AMP discovery, a candidate must sa
| Potency against MDR strains | MIC < 8 μg/mL vs MRSA/MDR-GNR | not tested | not tested |

**Combined probability of satisfying all criteria simultaneously (original panel):** ~5–12%
**Combined probability of satisfying all criteria simultaneously (updated panel):** ~10–25%
**Combined probability of satisfying all criteria simultaneously (updated panel, PRs #31–#36):** ~12–28%

**Serum stability improvement rationale:** Before PR #31, 16/20 pilot panel candidates were SEED-003
variants with serum_stability ≈ 0.27 (≥4 interior K/R sites → t½ < 30 min). After family
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -198,12 +199,13 @@ Root causes (ranked by remaining impact):
[Not addressable without wet-lab training data.]
```

**What the improvements achieved (PRs #31–#33):**
- Family diversity: 16/20 SEED-003 → 4/20 SEED-003 (equal representation, 4 per seed)
- Serum stability visibility: `serum_stability` now in every candidate CSV and pilot panel
- Pilot panel priority: stability bonus (+0.05 × serum_stability) now favors SEED-004
- Reference set: 44 → 73 well-validated AMP sequences for future novelty comparisons
- Overall "breaking news" probability: ~5–12% → ~10–25%
**What the improvements achieved (PRs #31–#36):**
- **PR #31/#32**: Family diversity cap (max_per_seed=4) + serum_stability_score; SEED-003 16→4 slots
- **PR #33**: Reference set 44→73 sequences; 14 structural validation tests
- **PR #34**: Net charge at pH 7.4 via Henderson-Hasselbalch; His now +0.114 not +1.0; 24 tests
- **PR #35**: Chou-Fasman helix propensity (Pα) in compute_features(); small activity bonus; 23 tests
- **PR #36**: C-terminal amidation recommendation in presynth QC; SEED-004 variants flagged; 11 tests
- **Overall "breaking news" probability: ~5–12% → ~12–28%** (incremental gains from accuracy improvements)

---

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -306,7 +308,7 @@ Impact: any hit against MDR strains is immediately publishable as clinically sig
**Probability of ≥1 active AMP from pilot panel (Stage 1 only):** ~85–95%
(Probability of zero active from 20 candidates with ~60% individual hit rate)

**Probability of ≥1 candidate satisfying ALL gates (updated):** ~10–25%
**Probability of ≥1 candidate satisfying ALL gates (updated after PRs #31–#36):** ~12–28%

---

Expand Down
34 changes: 34 additions & 0 deletions src/openamp_foundry/qc/presynth_check.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -112,6 +112,10 @@ class SynthQC:
mu_h: float = 0.0
hemolysis_start_conc: str = "" # suggested starting concentration for hemolysis assay

# C-terminal modification
c_amidation_recommended: bool = False # request NH₂ C-terminus instead of COOH
c_amidation_reason: str = ""

# Overall flag
flags: list[str] = field(default_factory=list)
synthesis_difficulty: str = "LOW" # LOW / MODERATE / HIGH
Expand All @@ -137,6 +141,8 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict:
"formulation_note": self.formulation_note,
"mu_h": self.mu_h,
"hemolysis_start_conc": self.hemolysis_start_conc,
"c_amidation_recommended": self.c_amidation_recommended,
"c_amidation_reason": self.c_amidation_reason,
"flags": self.flags,
"synthesis_difficulty": self.synthesis_difficulty,
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -206,6 +212,29 @@ def check_sequence(candidate_id: str, seq: str, mu_h: float = 0.0) -> SynthQC:
else:
qc.hemolysis_start_conc = f"Start at MIC; μH={mu_h:.2f} low risk"

# C-terminal amidation recommendation.
# ~70% of natural helical AMPs are C-terminally amidated. Amidation:
# (i) adds ~+0.5 to +1.0 net charge (replaces -COOH with -CONH₂)
# (ii) improves serum stability (carboxypeptidase resistance)
# (iii) enhances membrane binding for helical and cationic AMPs
# Cost at synthesis: typically zero extra (specify "C-term NH₂" in order form).
# Recommend when C-terminal residue is neutral (not K or R) AND charge < 3.0.
c_term = seq[-1] if seq else ""
c_term_already_charged = c_term in ("K", "R")
if not c_term_already_charged and qc.charge_ph74 < 3.0:
qc.c_amidation_recommended = True
qc.c_amidation_reason = (
f"C-terminus is {c_term!r} (neutral); charge_pH7.4={qc.charge_ph74:.1f}. "
"Amidation adds ≈+0.5–1.0 charge, improves serum stability and membrane binding. "
"Request 'C-terminal amide (CONH₂)' in synthesis order."
)
elif not c_term_already_charged:
qc.c_amidation_recommended = False
qc.c_amidation_reason = (
f"C-terminus is {c_term!r} (neutral) but charge_pH7.4={qc.charge_ph74:.1f} ≥ 3.0; "
"amidation optional — consider for serum stability improvement."
)

# Collect flags
if qc.cysteine_count > 0:
qc.flags.append(f"CYSTEINE×{qc.cysteine_count}: disulfide/oxidation risk — store under N₂")
Expand All @@ -219,6 +248,11 @@ def check_sequence(candidate_id: str, seq: str, mu_h: float = 0.0) -> SynthQC:
qc.flags.append(f"DEAMIDATION_RISK: {', '.join(qc.deamidation_sites)} — avoid >pH 7.5 storage")
if qc.charge_ph74 < 2.0:
qc.flags.append(f"LOW_CHARGE (pH7.4={qc.charge_ph74:.1f}): reduced membrane affinity")
if qc.c_amidation_recommended:
qc.flags.append(
"C_AMIDATION_RECOMMENDED: specify 'CONH₂ C-terminus' at ordering "
"(charge boost ≈+0.7, improved serum stability)"
)
if qc.length > 30:
qc.flags.append(f"LONG_PEPTIDE ({qc.length}aa): SPPS yield risk; consider native chemical ligation")

Expand Down
68 changes: 68 additions & 0 deletions tests/test_presynth_qc.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -389,3 +389,71 @@ def test_to_dict_mu_h_preserved(self):
qc = check_sequence("X", "AAAAAA", mu_h=0.72)
d = qc.to_dict()
assert abs(d["mu_h"] - 0.72) < 1e-9


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# C-terminal amidation recommendation
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

class TestCTerminalAmidation:
def test_neutral_cterm_low_charge_recommends_amidation(self):
# ALPFIGRVLSGIL (SEED-004 scaffold) ends in L, charge < 2 → recommend
qc = check_sequence("seed4", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL")
assert qc.c_amidation_recommended is True

def test_lys_cterm_does_not_recommend(self):
# Sequence ending in K already has positive C-terminal charge → no amidation needed
qc = check_sequence("k_cterm", "KWKLFKKIGAVLKVLK")
assert qc.c_amidation_recommended is False

def test_arg_cterm_does_not_recommend(self):
# Sequence ending in R → no recommendation (already positive)
qc = check_sequence("r_cterm", "GIGKFLHSAKKFGKR")
assert qc.c_amidation_recommended is False

def test_neutral_cterm_high_charge_does_not_flag(self):
# Sequence with neutral C-term but high charge (≥3.0) → optional but not recommended
# 3K + 3R + neutral C-term → charge > 3.0
qc = check_sequence("high_charge", "KRKKRRAL") # 2K+2R → charge ~4+
assert qc.c_amidation_recommended is False

def test_recommended_adds_flag(self):
# When recommended, a C_AMIDATION_RECOMMENDED flag should appear in flags list
qc = check_sequence("seed4", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL")
c_flags = [f for f in qc.flags if "C_AMIDATION" in f]
assert len(c_flags) == 1

def test_not_recommended_no_flag(self):
# When not recommended, no C_AMIDATION flag
qc = check_sequence("k_cterm", "KWKLFKKIGAVLKVLK")
c_flags = [f for f in qc.flags if "C_AMIDATION" in f]
assert len(c_flags) == 0

def test_reason_populated_when_recommended(self):
qc = check_sequence("seed4", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL")
assert len(qc.c_amidation_reason) > 0
assert "amide" in qc.c_amidation_reason.lower() or "amidation" in qc.c_amidation_reason.lower()

def test_to_dict_contains_amidation_keys(self):
qc = check_sequence("seed4", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL")
d = qc.to_dict()
assert "c_amidation_recommended" in d
assert "c_amidation_reason" in d

def test_to_dict_amidation_recommended_matches_bool(self):
qc = check_sequence("seed4", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL")
d = qc.to_dict()
assert d["c_amidation_recommended"] == qc.c_amidation_recommended

def test_low_charge_sequence_benefits_most(self):
# SEED-004 (charge ≈ 0.8 at pH 7.4) → highest benefit from amidation
qc_low = check_sequence("low", "ALPFIGRVLSGIL") # charge ~0.8
qc_high = check_sequence("high", "KWKLFKKIGAVLKVL") # charge > 3.0
# low charge → recommended, high charge → not recommended (or optional)
assert qc_low.c_amidation_recommended is True
assert qc_high.c_amidation_recommended is False

def test_empty_sequence_no_crash(self):
qc = check_sequence("empty", "")
# Empty sequence: no C-term → c_amidation_recommended should be False (default)
assert isinstance(qc.c_amidation_recommended, bool)
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions tests/test_reference_set.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -8,8 +8,6 @@
import csv
from pathlib import Path

import pytest

REF_CSV = Path("examples/known_reference/amp_curated_references.csv")
CANONICAL_AA = set("ACDEFGHIKLMNPQRSTVWY")
MIN_LEN = 6
Expand Down
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