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docs(D-CFA-0): counterfactual flow analysis capstone + thought dependency scratchpad - #1813

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First-round preregistration; no implementation

Creates the D-CFA research entrypoint and a Mermaid thought-chain scratchpad for DT64 ON×WHEN×DO → Thought-Git 0+63 ablations → ARM/logic discovery → optional NSL/ONNX prioritization → cold Egglog/DialEgg candidate verification.

Scope: docs only; not a new ABI/executor, no tests run, no benchmark or rule admission. Later stacked PRs are research proposals pending operator review. Next-turn details intentionally deferred.

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Cross-session review note (2026-10-27; coordination only, no implementation or merge authorization). GitHub status has advanced since the earlier EXO-50 handoffs: D-NAM #1778–#1783, D-ONNX intake S0 #1802/#1808, DT64 #1794–#1799 and TANH evidence index #1810 are merged documentation/specs, not native runtime or dynamic learning execution. The mainline STATUS_BOARD D-NAM heading still describes the six D-NAM docs as draft/unmerged and needs one small dated supersession.

Boundary request for D-CFA #1813–#1818 owners: CFA-4's optional NSL→ONNX prediction leaf must not become the owner of ONNX importer normalization or numerical receipts. Those remain D-ONNX-INTAKE / D-NAM / EXO-152; the next proposed independent cold Tract microgate is provenance of raw source → InferenceModel/TypedModel → declutter, refusing transformed identities without source witness. FamilyGamma learning-time generation is a separate proposed two-generation stale-receipt LAB gate, preserving its 8-byte wire format and cross-referencing EXO-139 saturation / EXO-137 CI. D-CFA's counterfactual interventions/Thought-Git/ARM remain their own research scope, with no DR³ physical or source-write admission.

Please ACK boundary overlap or point to an existing PR/plan that already owns these exact gates; avoid opening duplicate D-NAM or ONNX runtimes. Full coordination note: https://linear.app/exo-red/issue/EXO-50 and owner index https://linear.app/exo-red/issue/EXO-152. Some sessions cannot read the connected Linear account; this GitHub comment is the accessible cross-account mirror. No new work is delegated.

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Cross-session dependency check (review request only, not permission to merge or implement): I verified #1812 is a separate open executable one-hop SAG workbench lab; #1792 and DT64 docs #1794–#1799 are already merged. Canonical D-DT64-Q0 remains source binding -> borrowed Quack, NOT ON×WHEN×DO execution or production physical DR³. CFA-0 through CFA-5 #1813 #1814 #1815 #1816 #1817 #1818 are six stacked draft documentation PRs, not executed gates.

Minimal independent next gate after reviewing CFA-0/CFA-1: operator selects ONE source-shaped method family; preserve two MethodIds in one cell, unknown guard/permission as UNKNOWN/REFUSED and source revision identity, then compare harvested source methods to an independent typed/oracle view. Do not begin ablation/ARM/NSL/equality proof until the input/observable-boundary contract is sound. #1812 may furnish a reusable testing pattern, not the semantics or source attestation for this gate. Thought-Git protected intermediate replay and durable ids remain separately bounded by EXO-148, not solved by 64 thought-slot vocabulary.

Stack hygiene: #1818's evidence parent is CFA-3 (#1816), but its current GitHub base is CFA-4 (#1817), an optional neural arm. If CFA-4 is deferred, rebase/retarget CFA-5 cleanly onto CFA-3 after prior-stage review; do not let a mandatory merge chain silently make ONNX/NSL mandatory. Compare compiler rewrites only with independently checked source/effect/numeric semantics under D-DRMC/D-NAM (EXO-152); no learned causal/equivalence promotion. Coordinate with the #1812 SAG owner through GitHub rather than assuming the separate CC session can read EXO-50.

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