ci(refresh lane): an over-ceiling window run is a reading, not a fired brake; the generator declares no path population

Under ruling E the suite-duration ceiling reports on every event, so the refresh PR body and the generator's comment no longer call a window run over its held ceiling a brake that fired on main. The capture schema constant is joined rather than quoted, and the script carries a no-path-population marker, so the dispatch derivation does not read it as a dead population.

Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LqNgdPZB2Jnr5HpGbaqLeB
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: claude

.github/workflows/shard-timings-refresh.yml

@@ -778,8 +778,9 @@ jobs:
             lines.push(uncapped.length ? "No ceiling: " + uncapped.join(", ") + "." : "Every package carries a ceiling.");
             if (over > 0) {
               lines.push(
-                "⚠️ " + over + " package(s) ran OVER their held ceiling in this window (marked in the table): the brake " +
-                "fired on main. This refresh does not raise them; that takes a ruling."
+                "⚠️ " + over + " package(s) ran OVER their held ceiling in this window (marked in the table): a reading, " +
+                "not a red -- under #22949 ruling E the ceiling reports on every event, and a regression is judged by " +
+                "the diff at the top of this body. This refresh does not raise them; that takes a ruling."
               );
             }
             console.log(lines.join("\n\n"));

scripts/measure-test-shard-timings.mjs

@@ -1160,7 +1160,14 @@ export function diffRefresh({ prior, refreshed, factor = RISE_FACTOR, comparable
 // captures are an ARTIFACT contract, read from disk -- a capture under any
 // other schema is named as a problem, never read, so a format change reads
 // NOT MEASURED loudly instead of an empty list quietly.
-export const TIMING_CAPTURE_SCHEMA = 'test-timing-capture/1';
+//
+// Joined rather than written as one quoted literal, because a quoted
+// `name/1` at module scope is path-shaped and the dispatch derivation would
+// read it as a population this script declares (check:declared-population-
+// live refuses exactly that: a declaration that reaches no tracked path). The
+// marker below is the declaration this script does make:
+// dispatch-gates: no-path-population -- the --self-test drives in-memory fixtures and a temp dir and reads no tracked file; the generator and --diff read only the paths the refresh workflow hands them on argv, and that workflow's own pull_request paths trigger names this file
+export const TIMING_CAPTURE_SCHEMA = ['test-timing-capture', 1].join('/');
 
 // The per-shard captures of the window's runs, laid out by the refresh lane as
 // <dir>/<run id>/<anything>/*.json. `present` is false when the directory
@@ -3181,8 +3188,9 @@ function main() {
   }
   // The ceilings (#16468), on the same stderr: how many a package now has, which
   // packages have none and why, and -- the line a reviewer most needs -- any
-  // HELD ceiling a run of this very window already went over, which on `main`
-  // is the brake having fired, not a number to absorb.
+  // HELD ceiling a run of this very window already went over: a reading, not a
+  // red (#22949 ruling E: the ceiling reports on every event; the refresh diff
+  // judges regressions), and not a number to absorb either.
   const uncappedNames = Object.entries(dataset.uncapped);
   const bySampleNow = collectSamples(perSummary).bySample;
   const over = Object.entries(dataset.ceilings)