related_work.md

Related Work - NegativeEV (Polymarket BTC 5-min)

1. Existing Visualization Tools & Dashboards

Brier.fyi

• Analyzes 98,259+ historical Polymarket markets
• 2D calibration curves (predicted probability vs. actual resolution)
• Filters by traders, volume, duration, days before resolution
• Key difference: 2D only, long-duration markets (days/weeks), no 5-min markets
• URL: https://brier.fyi/charts/polymarket/

Polymarket Analytics

• Commercial dashboard: market search, top traders, real-time activity tracking
• Focused on portfolio/position tracking, not calibration analysis
• URL: https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/

Dune Analytics - Polymarket

• On-chain dashboards using Polygon blockchain data
• Tables: market_trades, market_prices_hourly/daily, positions, market_details
• Useful for quantitative analysis but no probabilistic calibration visualizations
• URLs: https://dune.com/polymarket_analytics, https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket

Manifold Markets Calibration

• Brier Score: 0.17371
• Interactive calibration curve showing quality improves with 10-20+ traders
• URL: https://manifold.markets/calibration

2. Academic Papers

"The Anatomy of Polymarket" (Tsang & Yang, 2025)

• Transaction-level analysis using complete on-chain data
• Volume decomposition framework: minting, burning, token conversion
• Documents market maturation: reduced arbitrage, decreased Kyle's lambda
• URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03136

"Prediction Markets? Accuracy and Efficiency of $2.4B in 2024"

• Multi-platform comparison: Polymarket (67% accuracy), PredictIt (93%), Kalshi (78%)
• Persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities
• URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/d5yx2_v1.html

"Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets" (Becker, 2025)

• 72.1M trades, $18.26B volume
• Systematic wealth transfer from Takers to Makers
• Identifies "Optimism Tax" and favorite-longshot bias
• URL: https://jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure

"Makers and Takers: Economics of Kalshi" (Whelan)

• Low-price contracts earn less than break-even after fees
• High-price contracts earn more, favorite-longshot bias in regulated markets
• URL: https://www.karlwhelan.com/Papers/Kalshi.pdf

"How Manipulable Are Prediction Markets?" (2025)

• Experimental study on prediction market manipulability
• IRB approval from Paris School of Economics
• URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.03312

Classic references

• Rothschild & Wolfers (2009): Prediction markets beat polls in 74% of comparisons
• Wolfers & Zitzewitz (2008): Market prices are good probability estimates long-run
• Atanasov et al. (2015): Markets beat simple polls, but algorithmic polls can match

3. BTC 5-Minute Markets - Specific Research

No published analysis exists

• btc-updown-5m markets launched in 2025, first trades in early February 2026
• Generated $25.2M in volume in first 40 hours (~$52K per window)
• ~288 markets per day per asset
• Source: https://longbridge.com/en/news/275964981

Known characteristics

• 95%+ of trades are from HFT bots
• Last 5-7 seconds show amplified volatility
• 7.1% of addresses bought both YES and NO simultaneously (profitable 80% of time)
• Sources: https://medium.com/@benjamin.bigdev/unlocking-edges-in-polymarkets-5-minute-crypto-markets-last-second-dynamics-bot-strategies-and-db8efcb5c196

4. Originality of Our Approach

Aspect	Existing work	Our project
Calibration	2D curves (Brier.fyi, Manifold)	3D surface
Time horizon	Days/weeks/months	5 minutes
Asset	Politics, sports, macro	Bitcoin (BTC)
Data	Midpoint probability	Token price in continuous time
Visualization	Static curves/filters	Interactive 3D (rotation, zoom, overlay)

Closest analogy: Implied volatility surfaces in options finance. We adapt (strike × expiry × IV) → (token price × time remaining × real probability).

5. Visual Inspiration

3D Interactive Surfaces

• Plotly.js 3D Surface Plots: https://plotly.com/javascript/3d-surface-plots
• D3.js 3D Surface: https://gist.github.com/supereggbert/aff58196188816576af0
• d3-x3d Surface Plot: https://observablehq.com/@jamesleesaunders/d3-x3d-components-surface-plot
• Interactive 2D/3D Probability Distributions (PMC 2023): https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10361712/

Financial Visualization

• CoinMarketCap Crypto Heat Map: https://coinmarketcap.com/crypto-heatmap/
• Implied volatility surface tools: Pineify, QuanTopo, VolSurface (GitHub)

Probability & Uncertainty

• NYT Election Needle: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
• Observable D3 probability notebooks

Scrollytelling & Data Narratives

• The Pudding: https://pudding.cool/
• Scrollama + D3 framework: https://github.com/edriessen/scrollytelling-scrollama-d3-demo

6. Past COM-480 Projects (Quality Benchmarks)

Year	Project	URL
2024	Formula 1	https://github.com/com-480-data-visualization/project-2024-Formula1
2024	WALS Viz	https://github.com/com-480-data-visualization/project-2024-wals-viz
2023	Lausanne Transportation	https://github.com/com-480-data-visualization/project-2023-the-vizards

All projects: https://github.com/com-480-data-visualization (317+ repos)